The Ultimate List of Easy Economic Explanations for the 2024 Election

So You Know When You’re Being Lied To

Too many people don’t completely understand economic concepts and how they interact with each other. I wanted to explain simply, some of the basics so you can make better-informed voting decisions.

Who am I? I received my B.S. in Agricultural Economic and Rural Sociology from the Pennsylvania State University and my M.A. in Economics from Georgetown University. I grew up on a farm in rural, Butler County, Pennsylvania. I was raised in a Republican household, and the first in my family to go to college. I went to Georgetown on a full fellowship.

I have been an investment banker, an adjunct professor in statistics and economics, a C.F.O. for multiple companies, and a successful entrepreneur during my career.

I am now a business development consultant and I hope the following information can help you.

Immigration

1. Immigration is good for America, economically. It keeps labor costs low and therefore keeps prices lower than they would be otherwise. It is generally better for the average American.
2. Republicans used to believe this as fact. Until some of them decided it could be an issue that causes fear and attention in order to win over voters. That said, illegal immigration needs to be improved and repaired ASAP. Republicans are blocking that.
3. Replacement theory. MAGA Republicans believe that if more immigration is allowed, they will vote for Democrats and eventually, Republicans will never be able to win elections again. That’s not true. Latinos are not a monolithic voting bloc. By the way, large swaths of the Latino population vote Republican and that number has been increasing.
4. Nearly half of illegal immigrants arrive in the US legally on visas and then overstay.
5. The 9/11 terrorists arrived in the US on student visas legally.
6. The birth rate in the United States is well below the 2.1 replacement level. We are at 1.6 and not replacing ourselves. That means in order to grow our economy, we need to support more legal immigration.

National Debt

1. The US national debt level is like your weight. The only way to lose weight is by eating less and/or exercising more. Period. The only way to decrease the debt level is to make more money or spend less. Period.
2. The national debt increased more under Trump than Biden. The difference is, Trump did it by decreasing taxes and Biden increased debt (again, not as much) by putting money into people’s hands and investing in grants to create more good job creation.
3. Decreasing taxes does not lead to more jobs and therefore more revenue for the government. It only increases the national debt.
4. An overheated economy (with higher inflation) comes from a higher national debt level.

Fiscal Policy vs. Monetary Policy

1. Fiscal policy is when the government spends money and it stimulates the economy. Monetary policy is when the FED alters the interest rates. Low interest rates stimulate the economy, but it can also lead to inflation. High interest rates cool down a hot economy and help lower inflation.

Interest Rates

1. The FED is short for the Federal Reserve Board. They raise or lower interest rates because they set the rate that banks can borrow from the federal government. All banks borrow from the federal government on a day-to-day basis.
2. If the FED raises rates and therefore charge banks more to borrow money, the banks pass that increase along to their customers.
3. Interest rates are tied to inflation. (See Fiscal Policy vs. Monetary Policy above.) Interest rates are higher now because inflation is higher now and the FED is trying to fight that.
4. The President of the United States has nothing to do with how, why and when the FED raises or lower interest rates.

Inflation

1. There are other reasons besides an overheated economy and high national debt levels why we have inflation.
2. Part of it is price gouging by your local grocery stores and gas stations.
3. Part of it is the law of supply and demand.
4. Law of supply and demand. When supply is plentiful, prices go down. When demand is high and/or supply is restricted for whatever reason, (there can be multiple reasons), prices go up.
5. Sometimes, companies raise their prices just because they can.
6. Sometimes the largest companies of one particular industry get together and raise their prices together because it benefits all of them. This is called collusion and it’s illegal.

Employment

1. Jobs have gone up under Biden/Harris. By more than any other time in history. Part of that came with ending Covid lockdowns. Part of it was from Biden’s fiscal stimulus. Fiscal stimulus is very powerful.

Stock Market

1. Stock market has hit new highs throughout the Biden/Harris term. The stock market is equal parts business fundamentals and group psychology. When people are optimistic, they buy more stocks (if they can) and it raises the stock price.
2. When businesses are doing well, their profits go up and their stock price goes up.
3. When interest rates are low people invest more of their money in the stock market.
4. That’s because they don’t make enough money by buying CDs, or bonds. Again, because the interest rates are too low.
5. Otherwise, neither Trump nor Biden had anything to do with the stock market prices. The only exception to this is if they can pass fiscal stimulus. In this case, companies are getting more money directly and indirectly from the federal government. Conceivably, they will then make higher profits and their stock prices will go up.
6. Trump did not pass any large fiscal stimulus bills. Biden did, e.g. infrastructure. That’s one of the reasons why the stock market is so high.

Trade Tariffs

1. Tariffs are not good for U.S. consumers.
2. Tariffs are like a tax on goods against whichever particular country that is exporting those goods to the U.S. Tariffs are not “paid by” the government you’re importing from. They are paid by the exporters’ customers, U.S .consumers. If a company can raise their prices to account for higher tariffs, great. But if they can’t, then it is the product business.
3. If the U.S. starts charging tariffs on imports, the country they are taxing will enact retaliatory tariffs against our exporters. They will lose business.
4. This is what happened to the farmers in America when Trump enacted tariffs against China. China passed retaliatory tariffs. The U.S. agricultural goods’ prices went up. So the Chinese importers of U.S. goods, such as soybeans, switched suppliers and ordered from Brazil.
5. Many farmers went bankrupt from this move. And the U.S. taxpayers had to rescue them with subsidies.

Housing Market

1. Mortgage rates are based on the ten year Treasury Bond, plus a profit for the lender.
2. As interest rates increase, mortgage rates increase.
3. Housing also depends on the Law of Supply and Demand. If the number of available houses to buy goes down (restricted supply), the price goes up. And vice versa.
4. One of the reasons why the supply of houses is restricted right now is because people have mortgages from the years when the interest rates were very low. If they sell their house and buy a new house, their new mortgage rate will be much higher. So they’re not selling.
5. Restricted supply means higher prices.
6. Mortgage rates are currently decreasing.

The 2020 and 2024 Election

1. And finally, Trump didn’t win the 2020 election. We would have known. He would have won court cases. The audits would have uncovered fraud. Pence would never have approved the electoral count.
2. Trump has been convicted of criminal felonies and is charged with other criminal felonies. He couldn’t get a job at the post office.
3. Trump is a sore loser.
4. Trump will lose again. But let’s make certain. Please register to vote and then make sure you vote on Tuesday, November 5th, or earlier if allowed in your state. Let’s do this and show the world how democracy works: for the people, of the people, and by the people.

Send this to everyone you know. Everyone deserves to know the truth so they can vote with a better understanding of how economics works in our country.